Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 21.902458 26.288712 31.108686 36.769839 43.207302 50.270307 58.575147
2025-08-17 15.500138 21.251782 28.212541 37.130253 48.116732 61.071658 77.354426
2025-08-24 11.686341 17.872458 25.959038 37.030329 51.495809 69.445393 93.060195
2025-08-31 8.768384 14.859182 23.404249 35.810120 52.855122 74.921725 105.049862
2025-09-07 7.214602 13.368912 22.538630 36.511269 56.499241 83.250799 120.832535
2025-09-14 5.688222 11.569000 20.885743 35.779251 57.931892 88.529911 132.674323
2025-09-21 4.837936 10.676825 20.427926 36.653037 61.568748 96.866245 148.875960
2025-09-28 3.698521 9.014866 18.468415 34.946258 61.183148 99.418356 157.080603
2025-10-05 3.251658 8.549705 18.422837 36.224199 65.311240 108.551883 174.824708
2025-10-12 2.819622 8.014317 18.163567 37.084537 68.788089 116.827363 191.594537
2025-10-19 2.432482 7.482632 17.824987 37.744366 71.935955 124.692555 207.995935
2025-10-26 2.129493 7.068755 17.644005 38.635794 75.470425 133.242392 225.652042
2025-11-02 1.702348 6.273189 16.661439 38.114849 76.845248 138.871670 239.722036
2025-11-09 1.414389 5.754016 16.175351 38.478737 79.770384 147.116707 258.179100
2025-11-16 1.145982 5.192549 15.495238 38.375499 81.836960 154.038242 274.804358
2025-11-23 0.865256 4.471823 14.312712 37.120566 81.724275 157.364956 285.886139
2025-11-30 0.732936 4.188522 14.114444 37.841676 85.215783 166.728489 306.754446
2025-12-07 0.564214 3.686146 13.269147 37.088813 85.890304 171.371588 320.195842
2025-12-14 0.483009 3.492421 13.191881 37.987470 89.725559 181.492920 342.759797
2025-12-21 0.341219 2.934876 11.995863 36.231987 88.291507 182.463612 350.382710
2025-12-28 0.300592 2.845628 12.127217 37.546443 92.967479 194.229096 376.122724
2026-01-04 0.256169 2.706606 12.081856 38.431205 96.817674 204.655410 399.896789
2026-01-11 0.214562 2.552588 11.958655 39.109681 100.273493 214.481872 422.907827